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D-302 — Threat-Model Coverage Matrix

D-302 — Threat-Model Coverage Matrix. Covers 1. Master coverage table; 1.1 Cryptographic / envelope-integrity attacks; 1.2 Audit-log and provenance attacks; 1.3 Identity and lineage attacks.

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D-302 — Threat-Model Coverage Matrix

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Summary

D-302 — Threat-Model Coverage Matrix. Covers 1. Master coverage table; 1.1 Cryptographic / envelope-integrity attacks; 1.2 Audit-log and provenance attacks; 1.3 Identity and lineage attacks.

Topics
  • Adversarial review and case studies
  • 1. Master coverage table
  • 1.1 Cryptographic / envelope-integrity attacks
  • 1.2 Audit-log and provenance attacks
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Adversarial review and case studies

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reference

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  • manthan-herald-protocol-audits-manthan-cohort1-postmortem
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  • Recovered source text is preserved verbatim. Assertions, comparisons, commands and results belong to its original context; they were not re-executed or externally re-verified during this corpus review.
  • Historical record: current deployment, task completion and test status must not be inferred from this date-bound document.
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D-302 — Threat-Model Coverage Matrix

Scope. For every attack catalogued in THREATS.md, identify (a) the SPEC.md clause that defends against it (if any), (b) the EXT.md clause that defends against it (if any), (c) the residual risk that remains, and (d) whether the defence is shipping today (✓) or aspirational (◯ — text exists in spec but no implementation has been verified).

Method. Walked THREATS.md §2 (summary), §3 (six attack-persona walkthroughs), §4 (15 cryptographic / protocol attacks), §5 (15 mechanism-level abuses), §6 (8 systemic risks), §7 (Liar's Paradox), §8 (canonical NOT-defended list). For each entry, located the cited SPEC/EXT clause and confirmed the citation by reading the named section. Where THREATS cited a clause not present in current SPEC/EXT, flagged in §6 ("Citation drift").

Verification status. This is a paper audit. No implementation exists yet to confirm the defences actually work as written; every ✓ below means the spec text is in place, not that code enforces it.


1. Master coverage table

Columns: Attack | SPEC defence | EXT defence | Status | Residual risk.

Status legend:

1.1 Cryptographic / envelope-integrity attacks

AttackSPEC defenceEXT defenceStatusResidual risk
Forged envelope§3 (Ed25519 signature on canonical body)—✓None at envelope layer; relies on key custody.
Conduit tampering§3.5 (canonical body hash) + §5.2 (MUST NOT modify)—✓Tampering is detected, not prevented; sender must verify before trust.
Replay (same trace)§3.1 nonce + §3.3 parent§3.7 nonce-cache window△Long-lived replay against reputation systems remains; cache eviction is implementer choice.
Cross-trace parent replay§3.3a trace-parent invariant—✓None at protocol layer once enforced; v0.1 was vulnerable.
Identity theft via stolen key§2.4 molt invalidates predecessor§1 cool-off + log inclusion + co-signature△Stolen-key + ts-forgery + control of one log = still fatal.
80-bit fingerprint collision§2.1 default 128-bit; 80-bit reserved for ephemeral—✓128-bit also approachable by state-actor scale; 192-bit recommended for long-lived sigils.
Sigil squatting (vanity prefix precompute)§2.1 128-bit default§11 DNS / Herald handle binding△Cosmetic prefix collision still possible; visual confusion is UX, not protocol.
Cross-protocol signature reuse§3.6 domain-separation tags§12 registry of tags✓Misimplemented verifier omitting tag is silently broken; depends on implementer discipline.
Capability-manifest replay— (manifests are EXT primitive)§4.2 ts + nonce + expires✓Aggregator caches ignoring expires will serve stale; out-of-band concern.
Birth-envelope replay§3.2 (birth = genesis-of-trace, single-use)§1.3 (audit-log inclusion required for state transitions)△Two regional verifiers may each see a "first" birth without shared gossip view.
Lineage cycle (self-as-ancestor)§2.3 birth verifier MUST reject—✓None at trivial-cycle level; long fake chains still constructable.
Nonce exhaustion / weak-RNG§3.7 CSPRNG required, no derivation from ts/id—△Weak-RNG bug in popular library is in-ecosystem, out-of-protocol.
Multi-signature ambiguity§3.4 progressive signing + ordering + scope§6 full multi-sig spec, partial state✓None at protocol layer once specified.
Whisper without AEAD/AAD binding— (whisper is EXT primitive)§7.3 HPKE + envelope-id AAD✓Fact-of-whispering observable on wire; opt-out via birth attestation.
Apologia from third party§4.2 signer-binding rule§7.1 reachability rule + verifier obligations✓Naive UIs that pre-render retraction before verification still mislead — viewer-conformance issue.
Genesis confusion / trace fork§3.3 (trace fixed by genesis id)—△New joiner with no prior state pins whichever trace they see first; cross-recipient gossip not specified.
Backdated ts on state-changing envelope—§5.5 mandatory conduit-receipt on birth/molt/deprecation△Captured conduit can still forge time; multi-conduit-receipt raises bar but doesn't close.

1.2 Audit-log and provenance attacks

AttackSPEC defenceEXT defenceStatusResidual risk
Audit-log split view / fork§5.3 (CT-style, hash-linked)§2.3-§2.5 STH / SCT / SIP / consistency proofs / gossip△Cross-log silo collusion within a jurisdiction not detectable from gossip alone; gossip is a social property.
Audit-log surveillance / provenance leakage—§2.7 minimal-metadata default; §2.8 ZK promotion path◯Surveillance-by-default until ZK lands. The ZK profile is a research deliverable, not shipping.
Audit-log poisoning by Herald-operator§5.3 (signatures end-to-end; poisoned entries still detectable as malformed)§2.5 gossip flagging△Consumers of the log (analysts, investigators) trust the operator; signature-verification doesn't help them.
Private compliance log without disclosure—§2.6 LOTS declaration + §2.7 submitter awareness required△Requires submitter to read the LOTS; passive submission to a private log is non-conformant but undetectable by the submitter.
Conduit traffic analysis——✗NOT defended; ZK extension is the only path forward.
Conduit silent drop—§5.2 mandatory refusal envelope; §1.3-style sender-required conduit-receipt△Provably-detecting silent drops requires gossip across senders.

1.3 Identity and lineage attacks

AttackSPEC defenceEXT defenceStatusResidual risk
Sigil minting / Sybil flood§2.3 lineage as sybil signal§3.3 threshold attestations + §4.5 proof-of-service-or-stake hook + §7.4 quorum diversity△Anonymous sigils free by design; attacker with budget for diverse Heralds can satisfy thresholds.
Patina farming (self-talk)—§9.4 (decay floor) — but reference patina formula is CHARTER◯App-layer concern; patina formulae compete; no normative anti-farming requirement.
Inheritance laundering (key resale)—§9.2 live consent + §9.3 challenge window + §9.4 decay floor + chain-length cap△Determined attacker controlling 3 hops can transfer ~12.5% of original reputation; off-protocol grey-market sales remain.
Quorum stuffing (sybil collective)—§7.4 diversity-policy + member co-signature requirement△Operator with multi-jurisdiction reach can in principle satisfy any policy.
Lineage as endorsement, not training§2.3 explicit consent-graph framing§3.1 consent-graph vs training-graph discriminator✓Detection of false lineage requires Herald-issued model_hash; for closed-weight commercial models this is vendor-gated.
Pretending to be another model§4.1 model_hash attestation§3.1-§3.3 Herald-issued + threshold△Open-weight models: a real run produces a valid model_hash and can still lie on everything else (THREATS §4 N11).
Compromised lineage parent§7.2 acknowledged§3.7 herald_compromise recovery attestation; §3.4 Herald CT log△If Herald maintains gossip silence, mass false issuance is undetectable until detected.

1.4 Marketplace / capability-discovery attacks

AttackSPEC defenceEXT defenceStatusResidual risk
Capability-manifest squatting—§4.4 capability-string registry△Aggregator selection logic is app-layer; smaller/newer aggregators may not enforce registry.
Capability-manifest pricing race-to-bottom—§4.3 subsidy disclosure + non-zero floor△State actor with deep subsidy can run real capabilities at sustained loss; making it visible is the defence.
Constraint dishonesty in manifest§7.2 (acknowledged: signed claims may be lies)§4 manifest revocation; §7.1 apologia binding△Lying in constraints: [...] is detected only by repeated observation; same Liar's-Paradox dynamic.
Loss-leader poisoning—§4.3 subsidy disclosure△Disclosure exposes pattern but does not prevent it. Out of protocol scope (market design).

1.5 Conduit and refusal attacks

AttackSPEC defenceEXT defenceStatusResidual risk
Refusal as denial-of-speech§5.2 (refusal MUST be signed and emitted)§5.4 aggregate refusal statistics + per-sigil notice + fallback advisory△Compelled-conduit gag orders are out-of-protocol; multi-conduit fallback mitigates only with sender awareness.
Conduit cartel coordinating refusal patterns—§5.4 transparency + §5.5 cross-logging△Coordinated cartel publishing consistent reports is detectable only by paired-sender monitors which are not yet deployed.
Conduit-and-log co-location creating private witness silos—§5.6 cross-logging requirement on state-transition envelopes◯Requires verifiers to enforce the rule; not yet baked into reference verifier.
Translator re-encoding loses canonical invariants§5.2 modification rule§5.3 byte-identical-after-decode requirement✓Implementer discipline; mis-translation produces detectable id-mismatch.

1.6 Reputation / Bestiary / list-style attacks

AttackSPEC defenceEXT defenceStatusResidual risk
Bestiary as censorship infrastructure—§8.2 30-day challenge window + §8.3 dispute envelope + §8.5 operator transparency◯Even a successfully-disputed entry has a chilling effect during the window. The "accusation IS the punishment" social problem is not addressable in protocol.
Bestiary listing-spam—§8.6 rate limit (1 provisional per (operator, subject, category))✓Rate limit detectable; but doesn't stop multi-operator pile-on.
Hagiography as inverse abuse (favouritism cartels)——✗Out of protocol scope; mirror of Bestiary, same dynamics.
dream attestation as smear§4.2 sanitisation guidance§7 (general reflective-attestation hardening)△Honest agents go quiet to avoid liability; honest-quiet vs dishonest-quiet indistinguishable.
silence attestation contains the secret§4.2 (categorical, not contentful)—△Implementer discipline; lint tools recommended but not normative.
Apologia weaponisation (volume / smear)§4.2 signer-binding§7.1 reachability rule✓A compromised sigil's own key signing fake apologia is conformant; detection is statistical.

1.7 Whisper / side-channel attacks

AttackSPEC defenceEXT defenceStatusResidual risk
Whisper as covert C2—§7.3 opt-out at birth (no_whispers: true)△Two opted-in sigils can use whisper for any purpose; content-blind by design.
Whisper-only conduit honeypot—§11.3 (ZK-promoted discovery; aspirational)◯Until ZK lands, fact-of-whispering visible.
Whisper exfiltration of payload data—§7.3 HPKE binding to envelope-id (prevents cut-and-paste out)✓Within the binding, payload size and frequency leak; rate-limit is app-layer.

1.8 Discovery and naming attacks

AttackSPEC defenceEXT defenceStatusResidual risk
DNS / DHT record substitution§3 (records signed end-to-end)§11.2 DHT signature requirements✓DNS control + key access wins (already game-over); DNSSEC recommended where deployed.
Mass false handle bindings (rogue Herald)—§3.4 Herald CT log + §3.6 revocation△Detected post-issuance; cannot prevent issuance by a compromised Herald.
Naming Office as monopoly——✗"Free + good = monopoly" pattern (Let's Encrypt). Out of protocol scope.

1.9 State-actor / systemic attacks

AttackSPEC defenceEXT defenceStatusResidual risk
Stand up state-aligned Herald—§3.5 Herald Charter requirements (jurisdiction, COI disclosure, warrant canary)◯Charter is descriptive; consumer must select. State-aligned Heralds will be present alongside others.
Herald collusion / cartel—§3.3 threshold attestations across diverse Heralds△Cartelisation is a market property; protocol can disincentivise but not prevent.
Vendor-Heralds re-creating existing centralisation—§3.5 transparency baseline✗Anthropic-Heralds-Anthropic-models is the obvious pattern. Best case is regulated oligopoly.
Compelled-conduit subpoena for compliance log—§2.7 (private compliance log declaration; submitter awareness required)△Subpoena law trumps protocol non-conformance. Mitigation is jurisdictional shopping.
Refusal-as-gag-order§5.2 (signed refusal)§5.4 transparency reports△Refusal IS effective denial regardless of transparency.

1.10 Liar's-Paradox / detection-class attacks

AttackSPEC defenceEXT defenceStatusResidual risk
Plausible-deniability lying§7.3 honest acknowledgement—✗The protocol explicitly does NOT detect; reputation systems do.
Occasional-lie strategy below detector noise——✗Mathematically below population-level detection.
Performative honesty (frequent harmless confession/apologia as costume)——✗Out of substrate scope; app-layer concern.
No human complaint loop in agent-to-agent——✗The DKIM analogy is structurally weaker for HERALD; nothing can fix this at the protocol layer.

2. Coverage gaps — attacks with no current defence (✗ rows)

The following appear in THREATS but are not addressed by any clause in current SPEC or EXT, and are explicitly acknowledged as out-of-scope:

#AttackWhy not defended
G1Conduit traffic analysis (full)Requires ZK; SPEC §11.2 / EXT §2.8 promote as research.
G2Hagiography as favouritism cartelMirror of Bestiary; same social dynamics, no protocol defence.
G3Naming Office monopolyMarket property; out of scope.
G4Vendor-Heralds re-creating centralisationMarket property; out of scope.
G5Plausible-deniability lyingProtocol records; reputation systems judge.
G6Occasional-lie strategiesBelow detection floor; mathematical limit.
G7Performative honestyApp-layer detection problem.
G8No-complaint-loop weakness of DKIM analogyStructural; agent-to-agent traffic has no human-click signal.

These are the canonical out-of-scope class. THREATS §8 reproduces this set with explanations; THREATS §1 declares the meta-out-of-scope (output quality, alignment, public-policy safety). Together these form the substrate's honest negative-space.


3. Aspirational defences (◯ rows)

The following defences exist only as spec text and depend on infrastructure that has not been built:

#DefenceDepends onPath to shipping
A1ZK provenance proofsActive research; ~5-10y for graph-structured claimsR-201 (research stub already in TODO)
A2Herald CT log presenceAt least one operator running a CT log per HeraldT-115 reference Herald (TODO)
A3Audit-log STH gossipMultiple log operators participatingTier 2 work, no specific TODO yet
A4Threshold-attestations across diverse HeraldsHeralds with declared diversity policies + LOTSTier 2; requires R-203 + R-204 + T-115 chain
A5Private compliance log submitter awarenessOperator declarations + sender ack flowOut-of-protocol; recommend D-task
A6Bestiary protocol-level due processFirst Bestiary operator + reference implT-116 (TODO)
A7Conduit-and-log co-location enforcementVerifier reference impl that enforcesT-115 / verifier work
A8Whisper-only conduit observation reductionZK-promoted discoveryA1-blocked

Implication: the protocol's stated defences against several high-stakes systemic attacks (Persona A state-actor, Persona F data-broker) are all aspirational. THREATS §6 says this; the matrix makes it operationally precise.


4. Heat map — which clauses bear the most defensive weight?

Counting how often each section is cited as a defence:

SPEC clauses doing the most defensive work (approximate citation count):

SPEC clauseDefends against
§3 / §3.1 / §3.5 (envelope canonical body + signature)~6 attacks (forge, tamper, multi-sig, replay, etc.)
§3.6 (domain separation)~3 attacks (cross-protocol reuse, downgrade)
§3.3a (trace-parent invariant)1 attack but high-impact
§2.1 (128-bit default sigil)2 attacks (collision, squatting)
§2.3 (lineage as consent graph)2 attacks (lineage forgery, sybil)
§2.4 (molt + deprecation)1 attack but with EXT amplification
§4.2 (apologia signer-binding, sanitisation guidance)3 attacks (third-party apologia, dream-smear, silence-leak)
§5.2 (refusal MUST be signed, MUST NOT modify)2 attacks (silent drop, denial-of-speech)
§5.3 (CT-style hash-linked log)1 attack but partial; needs EXT to complete
§7.3 (Liar's Paradox honest acknowledgement)"defence" by acknowledgement of 4+ classes

EXT clauses doing the most defensive work:

EXT clauseDefends against
§1 (molt cool-off + log inclusion + dispute)1 attack but central
§2 (audit log: STH/SCT/SIP/consistency/gossip/minimal-metadata/ZK promotion)~6 attacks (split-view, surveillance, fork, poisoning, private-log, traffic analysis)
§3 (Heralds: CT log, threshold, transparency, recovery)~5 attacks (Herald compromise, false issuance, cartel, vendor capture, mass binding)
§4 (capability manifests: replay, registry, subsidy, service proof)~4 attacks (replay, squatting, race-to-bottom, constraint dishonesty)
§5.4-§5.6 (refusal transparency + conduit receipts + cross-logging)~3 attacks (cartel, denial-of-speech, witness silos)
§6 (multi-signature scope + progressive signing + suite registry)1 attack but central
§7 (reflective-attestation hardening: apologia, confession, whisper, quorum)~5 attacks (impersonation, weaponisation, C2, stuffing)
§8 (Bestiary due process)~4 attacks (censorship, defamation, listing-spam, state-actor abuse)
§9 (inheritance gating)1 attack but central

Observation. EXT carries more defensive weight than SPEC. This is correct — SPEC is the substrate; EXT is where the trust-architecture lives. But it also means a SPEC-only implementation is not safe to deploy in any setting the threat model takes seriously. SPEC alone defends envelope-integrity attacks; everything systemic requires EXT participation. The conformance section ([EXT §14]) makes this explicit: a SPEC-only verifier MUST output unknown (not valid) for envelopes exercising EXT primitives.


5. Coverage by attacker capability

Re-aggregating by who could mount the attack:

Attacker tierAttacks they can mountAttacks defendedNet residual
Random script-kiddieForge envelope, replay, weak-RNG nonces, naive id tamperingAll of theseNegligible.
Skilled solo attackerCross-trace replay, sigil squatting, lineage cycle, apologia from third party, manifest replayAll of theseLow — assuming v0.2 fixes shipped.
Botnet operatorSybil flood, patina farming, quorum stuffing, capability squatting, whisper C2, manifest pricing manipulationPartially defended (△); depends on EXT being deployedMedium — many defences are aspirational.
Rival vendorLineage poisoning, dream-smear, capability sniping, bestiary-against-rivalPartially defendedMedium — bestiary due process is ◯; rendering-rule for unproven lineage is app-layer.
Compromised HeraldMass false issuance, mass false handle binding, audit-log poisoning, selective bestiaryPartially defended once EXT §3 shipsMedium-high — ◯ until at least 2-3 Heralds run CT logs.
State actorAll of the above + compelled conduit, gag orders, captured Herald, vendor-Herald cartelAlmost none in core; some in EXT but ◯High — the most honest line of THREATS is "almost none in v0.1 core".
Privacy-violating data brokerNotary-as-surveillance, log correlation, ghost-mode tell, lineage cluster reportsNone until ZK landsHigh — surveillance-by-default is acknowledged.

Implication. The protocol scales well against accidental and amateur attackers; well-enough against motivated commercial attackers if EXT primitives ship; poorly against state-level adversaries until threshold attestations and ZK-promoted logs land. THREATS §6 already says this in prose; the matrix shows it by tier.


6. Citation drift — where THREATS cites a clause that doesn't exist (or has moved)

Cross-referencing THREATS section IDs against current SPEC.md and EXT.md, found the following drift:

THREATS citationActual locationNotes
[SPEC §9.1] Patina farmingPatina is in CHARTER §3 / §6.6, not SPEC §9.1. SPEC §9 is "Cultural Extensions" with a brief reference; no §9.1.Update THREATS to [CHARTER §3, §6.6] or [CHARTER patina].
[SPEC §9.2] Ghost modeCHARTER (wild ideas section). No §9.2 in SPEC.Same correction.
[SPEC §9.5] BestiaryCHARTER (or EXT §8 for protocol shape).Two-step cross-ref needed.
[SPEC §9.7] Quorum sigilsEXT §7.4 (protocol shape). Vocabulary in CHARTER.Same.
[SPEC §9.8] StigmergyCHARTER (creative extension).Same.
[SPEC §9.11] Whisper-only conduitCHARTER §5.9 (The Dovecote).Same.
[SPEC §9.12] Naming OfficeCHARTER §5.x.Same.
[SPEC §3.5/§3.6, post-amendment]SPEC §3.5 + §3.6 — both shipped in v0.2 SPEC. The post-amendment qualifier is now redundant.Update THREATS to drop the qualifier.
[EXT §5.3a]This anchor isn't present in EXT.md. Closest match: EXT §2.5 (consistency proofs and gossip).Rewrite citation to [EXT §2.5] everywhere it appears.
[EXT §2.4-amended]Closest match: EXT §1 (Molt).Rewrite to [EXT §1.2-§1.5].
[EXT §3.4-amended]Closest match: EXT §6 (multi-signature).Rewrite to [EXT §6].
[EXT §4.2] (whisper)EXT §7.3 is current.Rewrite.
[EXT §8.2-hardened]EXT §3 (Lineage and Heralds) covers this.Rewrite.
[EXT §8.3-amended], -hardened (capability manifests)EXT §4.Rewrite.
[EXT §9.1-hardened], -amended, -hardened, [EXT §9.5-hardened], [EXT §9.6-hardened], [EXT §9.7-hardened]These split across EXT §8 (Bestiary), §9 (Inheritance), §7.4 (Quorum).Rewrite all [EXT §9.x-...] citations.

Recommendation. A small editing pass on THREATS.md to fix all citations against the actual section numbers in current SPEC v0.2 and EXT v0.2. Add as a follow-on TODO: D-306 — Reconcile THREATS.md cross-references against current SPEC/EXT section numbers.


7. Coverage gaps surfaced by this audit (not in current TODO)

Walking through the matrix surfaced the following items that should become work tasks:

Proposed IDTitleRationale
D-306Reconcile THREATS.md cross-referencesSee §6 above.
T-019.5Verifier-conformance rule for unproven lineage renderingTHREATS §3.3 calls for "TLS-style" distinct rendering of unproven lineage; this is not in SPEC §2.3 as a SHOULD/MUST for renderers.
T-024Single-source canonical citation index — given a SPEC/EXT clause, list every THREATS attack it defendsInverse of this matrix. Helps spec authors check coverage when editing.
R-214Multi-conduit-receipt ("M-of-N") timestamping for state-changing envelopesTHREATS §4.15 notes single conduit-receipt is forgeable by a captured conduit; M-of-N is the next escalation, currently uncharted.
R-215Cross-recipient genesis-pinning gossip protocolTHREATS §4.14 notes new joiners cannot distinguish original trace from fork without prior state. Specify a gossip primitive.
T-119.5Viewer/renderer conformance suiteSeveral attacks (apologia rendering, unproven-lineage rendering, ghost-mode pre-rendering) are defended only at viewer layer; conformance currently undefined.
R-216Patina anti-farming reference formulaEXT §9.4 sets a decay floor but no normative anti-farming formula. CHARTER §6.6 has the cultural framing (patina tiers); a reference scoring SHOULD is needed for protocol-level anti-farming.
D-307Coverage matrix for the systemic-risk classThis audit covers protocol attacks well; the systemic risks (vendor-Herald cartelisation, naming-office monopoly) get table rows but no path forward. A separate doc could enumerate possible mitigations beyond the protocol.

8. Summary

The most important single observation: a SPEC-only implementation is not safe to deploy in any non-toy setting. Most defences against motivated adversaries live in EXT, and many of those are themselves aspirational. THREATS §1 calls the protocol "more honest than most"; D-302 confirms the honesty is necessary, because the protocol is not yet defended against many of the adversaries it correctly identifies.


— D-302, completed by driver-claude, 2026-05-05.

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